GOP Update

Ok, with the Romney endorsement of McCain I thought I'd post some updated scenario figures.

From the McCain perspective they come down this way

With no Romney delegates, he would need 366 more or 37.86% of those left

If he gets 1/4 of the Romney delegates he would need 295 more or 30.51% of those left.

If he gets 1/2 of them then he would need 224 more or 23.17% of those left.

If he gets 3/4 of them then he would need 153 more or 15.83% of those left

I assume that at minimum Romney can deliver 1/4 of his delegates to McCain

From the Huckabee camp

With no Romney delegates he needs 963 more or 99.58% of those left

If he manages 1/4 of those left he would need 892 more or 92.24%.

If he manages 1/2 of those left he would need 821 more or 84.90%

Even if he manages 3/4 of them he would need 750 more or 77.55%

We all know that McCain has won but these figures put it in perspective

Delegate Tracking and Candidate Needs

I have begun to track the nomination battles by averaging several sources for delegate counts (Right now CNN, Fox, MSNBC and a web site called Election Projection). I figure these 4 sources should give me a broad average.

Right now (with mostly full Feb 12th results) the numbers are as follows

On the GOP side

McCain has 790 delegates, needs 402 more or roughly 40.02% of those left.

Huckabee has 227 delegates, needs 964 more or roughly 96.06% of those left.

If all the non McCain delegates go to Huckabee he'd need 601 delegates or roughly 59.88% of those left.

If the Romney delegates split 50/50 then McCain needs 260 delegates or roughly 25.87% of those left.

On the Democratic side

Obama has 1150 delegates, needs 875 more or roughly 52.02% of those left.

Clinton has 1099 delegates, needs 927 more or rougly 55.10% of those left.

This of course opens the possibility that we could get past the primaries with nobody having a majority.

I will update as the vote goes on

McCain and Obama Sweep

John McCain and Barack Obama have swept the Maryland, Virginia and DC primaries, giving both a huge boost in their race for the Presidency.

Romney Drops Out

Mitt Romney is suspending his campaign, further insuring that John McCain will be the GOP nominee.

The only issue is how long it will take

McCain Cruising, Obama and Clinton Tied

The numbers are still firming up as the vote count goes on but a couple of things seem clear. McCain is going to be the GOP nominee and the Democratic race is dead even.

Starting on the GOP side, the latest numbers are

McCain: 750 delegates
Romney: 250 delegates
Huckabee: 190 delegates
Paul: 15 delegates

This represents roughly half of the total number of 2,400 or so.

To get the nomination, McCain needs about 450 out of the remaining 1200 or about 38% or so. So basically if he more or less splits the remaining delegates 3 ways with Romney and Huckabee, he has the nomination.

The only issue is how long it will take.

On the Democratic side, it's a little harder to tell

The latest numbers have Clinton and Obama pretty much tied. Obama is actually slightly ahead based on the delegates chosen at the ballot box but Clinton has an edge with the 'superdelegates' chosen by Democratic party leaders. This would give her a slight edge.

But to again complicate things, the upcoming primaries this week (Louisiana, Maryland, DC and Virginia) tend to favor Obama, so he is likely to gain a lead overall in the next week or so.

Then we go to races in Ohio, Texas, etc that favor Clinton.

So bottom line is this race will be open through summer.

Update #3

McCain continues to win the east, taking New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware

He currently leads in Alabama

But the race is close in Georgia and Missouri, and California is said to be close by exit polls.

On the Democratic side, Clinton has won both of her home states (NY and Ark) and is doing well in Northeast with wins in Massachusetts and New Jersey.

Obama, as expected, is doing well in the South

Primary Results Update

Polls have closed and we see a win for Obama in Illinois, his home state while Clinton wins Oklahoma.

On the GOP side we've seen McCain win Connecticut and Illinois, while Romney wins in Massachusets.

Georgia remains too close to call for the GOP while Alabama is out for the Dems.

Huckabee and Obama Score First Wins

The first couple of wins today have gone to Huckabee and Obama.

In West Virginia, after 2 rounds of voting, Huckabee beat out Romney, though there is speculation that during the 2nd round, McCain supporters shifted to Huckabee to avoid a Romney win.

In Georgia, Obama has beaten Clinton, though we do not yet have final numbers to see if he met or beat the polling spread of about 20 points.

The GOP race is close between McCain, Romney and Huckabee.