Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Delegate Tracking and Candidate Needs

I have begun to track the nomination battles by averaging several sources for delegate counts (Right now CNN, Fox, MSNBC and a web site called Election Projection). I figure these 4 sources should give me a broad average.

Right now (with mostly full Feb 12th results) the numbers are as follows

On the GOP side

McCain has 790 delegates, needs 402 more or roughly 40.02% of those left.

Huckabee has 227 delegates, needs 964 more or roughly 96.06% of those left.

If all the non McCain delegates go to Huckabee he'd need 601 delegates or roughly 59.88% of those left.

If the Romney delegates split 50/50 then McCain needs 260 delegates or roughly 25.87% of those left.

On the Democratic side

Obama has 1150 delegates, needs 875 more or roughly 52.02% of those left.

Clinton has 1099 delegates, needs 927 more or rougly 55.10% of those left.

This of course opens the possibility that we could get past the primaries with nobody having a majority.

I will update as the vote goes on


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